University applications remain worryingly down on previous years

The union said that applications should have risen considerably year-on-year from the large drop in 2012, when tuition fees up to £9,000 were introduced. Historical data shows that applications do fall when fees go up, but then recover strongly the following year.

This year's overall rise of just 3.5% means that there are fewer applications at this stage of the applications process than there were even in 2010. Last year the government was keen to point out that, following its reforms, year-on-year fluctuations were to expected* but the union said today's figures were a serious body blow to claims that increased fees were not deterring students from applying.

In England, where fees have increased the most, the number of students applying to university rose by 3% compared to last year. However, applications are down by -7.2% on 2011 and down by -6.1% compared to 2010.

At this stage in the applications cycle in 2007, the year following the last tuition fee hike, there was a 6.4% increase in the total number of applications, the number of applicants from England went up by 7.1% and both continued to rise until 2011 - the year before the £9,000 fees were introduced.

UCU general secretary, Sally Hunt, said: 'Today's figures are a real body blow for anyone who does not think higher fees are turning some people away from university. Historical data suggests there should have been a considerable increase in the number of applications this year, but that simply is not the case. There are fewer people applying than back in 2010.

'It would be a real shame if ministers tried to use today's minimal rise as vindication for their punitive polices, when a quick look behind the figures gives a much more worrying picture. What ministers need to be doing is giving considerable thought to the reasons why.'

The full figures can be found here (.pdf)

* 'During periods of reform, we expect year-on-year trends to fluctuate. We saw this in 2006 (when a 2.9% reduction in English domiciled applicants was followed by a 6% increase the following year). Similarly, both 2011 and 2012 will be unusual years. 2011 figures show a significant increase in accepted applicants - which would naturally mean a smaller pool of potential applicants in 2012 than would otherwise have been the case.' Source: news.bis.gov.uk