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Predicted grades: accuracy and impact

7 December 2016

A report by Dr Gill Wyness, UCL Institute of Education, exploring the accuracy and impact of the use of predicted grades for application to higher education

How accurate are the predicted grades of university applicants?

How does grade accuracy vary according to student characteristics (gender, ethnicity, level of disadvantage) and the school type?

What is the impact of the predicted grade system on applicants' university choices?

The report analyses the data for nearly 1.4m students who progressed to higher education between 2013-2015 and finds that just 16% of A level results are predicted correctly.  

Predicted grades: accuracy and impact, Dec 16 [328kb]

Last updated: 20 January 2022